From data to decision: Harnessing the power of AI for modelling removal of pharmaceutical residues from wastewater and determining environmental impacts of discharge

Research Line: Circular Safe Hospitals / Seed Call: September 2025

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) play a crucial role in safeguarding water quality, yet current systems are not adequately equipped to remove the wide range of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), their metabolites and transformation products. New European regulations require the implementation of advanced API-removal technologies, while the knowledge base needed to support evidence-based decisions remains fragmented. Many legacy APIs have never undergone environmental risk assessment, existing models do not yet incorporate advanced or non-biological treatment technologies, and the performance of decentralised or on-site (hospital) treatment systems is poorly understood.

This project explores how advanced modelling and artificial intelligence (AI) can strengthen predictions of API removal and environmental impacts, thereby laying the groundwork for more robust, future-proof water quality management and policy.

Objectives and Route to Impact

The objective of this seed money project is to jointly develop a follow-up research proposal that demonstrates how modelling and AI can be used to:

• improve predictions of API removal in WWTPs, including conventional, advanced and on-site treatment systems;
• enhance the assessment of environmental impacts of APIs, their metabolites and transformation products.

To achieve this, the project will systematically evaluate existing models (such as SimpleTreat, SUMO and ecotoxicity models) and key databases with respect to scope, data quality, applicability and potential for extension. In parallel, the project will assess which AI approaches offer genuine added value beyond existing QSAR methods, and under which conditions these approaches are sufficiently robust and transparent for regulatory and policy use.

The findings will be discussed during an invitation-only expert workshop with scientific and societal stakeholders. The outcomes will form the substantive and organisational basis for a larger-scale research project with external funding, aimed at supporting informed decision-making across the water cycle.

Contribution to Cross-EWUU Collaboration

The project brings together complementary expertise from Wageningen University & Research, Utrecht University, RIVM, and LeAF. This collaboration integrates water technology, environmental toxicology, risk assessment, policy expertise and AI-driven modelling. By jointly evaluating models, data and assumptions, the consortium develops an integrated approach that is both scientifically rigorous and directly relevant for policy and practice. Close involvement of public stakeholders ensures alignment with current regulatory developments and implementation needs.

Team

• Prof. Dr Ir Adriaan Mels – Wageningen University (Principal Investigator)
• Dr Nora Sutton – Wageningen University
• Dr Gabriel Sigmund – Wageningen University
• Dr Ir Chiel Jonker – Utrecht University
• Dr Ivo Djidrovski – Utrecht University
• Dr Ir Caroline Moermond – RIVM
• Dr Pim Wassenaar – RIVM
• Dr Joris Quik – RIVM
• Prof. Dr Leo Posthuma – RIVM
• Tiemen Nanninga – LeAF
• Els Schuman – LeAF
• Marlies Bos – LeAF